Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:GSEO VH GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES PLC

Outlook: VH GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 02 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

Prediction of stock market is a long-time attractive topic to researchers from different fields. In particular, numerous studies have been conducted to predict the movement of stock market using machine learning algorithms such as support vector machine (SVM) and reinforcement learning. In this project, we propose a new prediction algorithm that exploits the temporal correlation among global stock markets and various financial products to predict the next-day stock trend.(Thakkar, A. and Chaudhari, K., 2021. A comprehensive survey on deep neural networks for stock market: The need, challenges, and future directions. Expert Systems with Applications, 177, p.114800.) We evaluate VH GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GSEO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Trading Signals
  2. Operational Risk
  3. Is now good time to invest?

LON:GSEO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider VH GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:GSEO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:GSEO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:GSEO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:GSEO VH GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES PLC
Time series to forecast n: 02 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for VH GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES PLC

  1. Paragraph 6.3.6 states that in consolidated financial statements the foreign currency risk of a highly probable forecast intragroup transaction may qualify as a hedged item in a cash flow hedge, provided that the transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the entity entering into that transaction and that the foreign currency risk will affect consolidated profit or loss. For this purpose an entity can be a parent, subsidiary, associate, joint arrangement or branch. If the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction does not affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction cannot qualify as a hedged item. This is usually the case for royalty payments, interest payments or management charges between members of the same group, unless there is a related external transaction. However, when the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction will affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction can qualify as a hedged item. An example is forecast sales or purchases of inventories between members of the same group if there is an onward sale of the inventory to a party external to the group. Similarly, a forecast intragroup sale of plant and equipment from the group entity that manufactured it to a group entity that will use the plant and equipment in its operations may affect consolidated profit or loss. This could occur, for example, because the plant and equipment will be depreciated by the purchasing entity and the amount initially recognised for the plant and equipment may change if the forecast intragroup transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the purchasing entity.
  2. An entity shall apply this Standard retrospectively, in accordance with IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.4–7.2.26 and 7.2.28. This Standard shall not be applied to items that have already been derecognised at the date of initial application.
  3. The expected credit losses on a loan commitment shall be discounted using the effective interest rate, or an approximation thereof, that will be applied when recognising the financial asset resulting from the loan commitment. This is because for the purpose of applying the impairment requirements, a financial asset that is recognised following a draw down on a loan commitment shall be treated as a continuation of that commitment instead of as a new financial instrument. The expected credit losses on the financial asset shall therefore be measured considering the initial credit risk of the loan commitment from the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment.
  4. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

VH GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:GSEO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:GSEO VH GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2B1
Balance SheetB2C
Leverage RatiosB1B2
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 664 signals.

References

  1. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
  2. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  3. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  4. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  5. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  6. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  7. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:GSEO stock?
A: LON:GSEO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:GSEO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:GSEO Stock.
Q: Is VH GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for VH GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OPPORTUNITIES PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:GSEO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:GSEO is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:GSEO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:GSEO is (n+6 month)

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