Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:JNEO JOURNEO PLC

Outlook: JOURNEO PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 30 Jan 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

JOURNEO PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:JNEO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Short/Long Term Stocks
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

LON:JNEO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider JOURNEO PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:JNEO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:JNEO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:JNEO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:JNEO JOURNEO PLC
Time series to forecast n: 30 Jan 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for JOURNEO PLC

  1. The following are examples of when the objective of the entity's business model may be achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets. This list of examples is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the examples are not intended to describe all the factors that may be relevant to the assessment of the entity's business model nor specify the relative importance of the factors.
  2. For the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.11, at the point when an entity amends the description of a hedged item as required in paragraph 6.9.1(b), the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows are determined.
  3. When applying the effective interest method, an entity generally amortises any fees, points paid or received, transaction costs and other premiums or discounts that are included in the calculation of the effective interest rate over the expected life of the financial instrument. However, a shorter period is used if this is the period to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate. This will be the case when the variable to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate is repriced to market rates before the expected maturity of the financial instrument. In such a case, the appropriate amortisation period is the period to the next such repricing date. For example, if a premium or discount on a floating-rate financial instrument reflects the interest that has accrued on that financial instrument since the interest was last paid, or changes in the market rates since the floating interest rate was reset to the market rates, it will be amortised to the next date when the floating interest is reset to market rates. This is because the premium or discount relates to the period to the next interest reset date because, at that date, the variable to which the premium or discount relates (ie interest rates) is reset to the market rates. If, however, the premium or discount results from a change in the credit spread over the floating rate specified in the financial instrument, or other variables that are not reset to the market rates, it is amortised over the expected life of the financial instrument.
  4. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

JOURNEO PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. JOURNEO PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:JNEO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

LON:JNEO JOURNEO PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowBa3Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 668 signals.

References

  1. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  2. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
  3. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  4. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  5. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  6. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  7. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:JNEO stock?
A: LON:JNEO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LON:JNEO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:JNEO Stock.
Q: Is JOURNEO PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for JOURNEO PLC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:JNEO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:JNEO is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:JNEO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:JNEO is (n+16 weeks)

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