Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:LBE LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC

Outlook: LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 30 Jan 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)

Abstract

LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:LBE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Decision Making
  2. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

LON:LBE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:LBE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:LBE stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:LBE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:LBE LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC
Time series to forecast n: 30 Jan 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC

  1. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.
  2. IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.
  3. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  4. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:LBE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:LBE LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetBa1Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2B3
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCCaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 880 signals.

References

  1. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
  2. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  3. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
  4. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  5. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
  6. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:LBE stock?
A: LON:LBE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is LON:LBE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:LBE Stock.
Q: Is LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:LBE stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:LBE is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:LBE stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:LBE is (n+4 weeks)

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