Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:NSCI NETSCIENTIFIC PLC

Outlook: NETSCIENTIFIC PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 01 Jan 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

This study aims to predict the direction of stock prices by integrating time-varying effective transfer entropy (ETE) and various machine learning algorithms. At first, we explore that the ETE based on 3 and 6 months moving windows can be regarded as the market explanatory variable by analyzing the association between the financial crises and Granger-causal relationships among the stocks.(Zhang, J., Li, L. and Chen, W., 2021. Predicting stock price using two-stage machine learning techniques. Computational Economics, 57(4), pp.1237-1261.) We evaluate NETSCIENTIFIC PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:NSCI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  3. What is prediction in deep learning?

LON:NSCI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NETSCIENTIFIC PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:NSCI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:NSCI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:NSCI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:NSCI NETSCIENTIFIC PLC
Time series to forecast n: 01 Jan 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for NETSCIENTIFIC PLC

  1. If changes are made in addition to those changes required by interest rate benchmark reform to the financial asset or financial liability designated in a hedging relationship (as described in paragraphs 5.4.6–5.4.8) or to the designation of the hedging relationship (as required by paragraph 6.9.1), an entity shall first apply the applicable requirements in this Standard to determine if those additional changes result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting. If the additional changes do not result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting, an entity shall amend the formal designation of the hedging relationship as specified in paragraph 6.9.1.
  2. If the holder cannot assess the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 at initial recognition, the tranche must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. If the underlying pool of instruments can change after initial recognition in such a way that the pool may not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the tranche does not meet the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 and must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. However, if the underlying pool includes instruments that are collateralised by assets that do not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the ability to take possession of such assets shall be disregarded for the purposes of applying this paragraph unless the entity acquired the tranche with the intention of controlling the collateral.
  3. An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.
  4. A layer component that includes a prepayment option is not eligible to be designated as a hedged item in a fair value hedge if the prepayment option's fair value is affected by changes in the hedged risk, unless the designated layer includes the effect of the related prepayment option when determining the change in the fair value of the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

NETSCIENTIFIC PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:NSCI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

LON:NSCI NETSCIENTIFIC PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2B1
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 735 signals.

References

  1. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
  2. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  3. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  4. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
  5. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  6. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  7. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:NSCI stock?
A: LON:NSCI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is LON:NSCI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:NSCI Stock.
Q: Is NETSCIENTIFIC PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NETSCIENTIFIC PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:NSCI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:NSCI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:NSCI stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:NSCI is (n+8 weeks)

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