Outlook: PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 27 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

## Abstract

PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:PAG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. What is statistical models in machine learning?
2. Market Outlook
3. How useful are statistical predictions?

## LON:PAG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:PAG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:PAG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:PAG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:PAG PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 27 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC

1. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
2. An entity that first applies these amendments after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.32–7.2.34. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
3. If a put option written by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the associated liability is measured at the option exercise price plus the time value of the option. The measurement of the asset at fair value is limited to the lower of the fair value and the option exercise price because the entity has no right to increases in the fair value of the transferred asset above the exercise price of the option. This ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the put option obligation. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU120, the option exercise price is CU100 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU105 (CU100 + CU5) and the carrying amount of the asset is CU100 (in this case the option exercise price).
4. Adjusting the hedge ratio allows an entity to respond to changes in the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item that arise from their underlyings or risk variables. For example, a hedging relationship in which the hedging instrument and the hedged item have different but related underlyings changes in response to a change in the relationship between those two underlyings (for example, different but related reference indices, rates or prices). Hence, rebalancing allows the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item chang

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:PAG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### LON:PAG PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1Ba3
Balance SheetB3C
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Ba1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 488 signals.

## References

1. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
2. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
3. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
4. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
5. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
6. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
7. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:PAG stock?
A: LON:PAG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is LON:PAG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PAG Stock.
Q: Is PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:PAG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:PAG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:PAG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:PAG is (n+3 month)

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