Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:PHC PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC

Outlook: PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 20 Jan 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:PHC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. What is a prediction confidence?
  3. Market Outlook

LON:PHC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:PHC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:PHC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:PHC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:PHC PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC
Time series to forecast n: 20 Jan 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC

  1. However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.
  2. There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.
  3. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  4. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:PHC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

LON:PHC PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa1Ba3
Balance SheetBaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowCC
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 686 signals.

References

  1. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  2. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
  3. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  4. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
  5. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  6. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  7. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:PHC stock?
A: LON:PHC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is LON:PHC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:PHC Stock.
Q: Is PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PLANT HEALTH CARE PLC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:PHC stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:PHC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:PHC stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:PHC is (n+8 weeks)



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