AC Investment Research

MPWR Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Outlook: Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 08 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MPWR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. Prediction Modeling

MPWR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MPWR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MPWR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MPWR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MPWR Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 08 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock

  1. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
  2. A single hedging instrument may be designated as a hedging instrument of more than one type of risk, provided that there is a specific designation of the hedging instrument and of the different risk positions as hedged items. Those hedged items can be in different hedging relationships.
  3. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.
  4. To calculate the change in the value of the hedged item for the purpose of measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity may use a derivative that would have terms that match the critical terms of the hedged item (this is commonly referred to as a 'hypothetical derivative'), and, for example for a hedge of a forecast transaction, would be calibrated using the hedged price (or rate) level. For example, if the hedge was for a two-sided risk at the current market level, the hypothetical derivative would represent a hypothetical forward contract that is calibrated to a value of nil at the time of designation of the hedging relationship. If the hedge was for example for a one-sided risk, the hypothetical derivative would represent the intrinsic value of a hypothetical option that at the time of designation of the hedging relationship is at the money if the hedged price level is the current market level, or out of the money if the hedged price level is above (or, for a hedge of a long position, below) the current market level. Using a hypothetical derivative is one possible way of calculating the change in the value of the hedged item. The hypothetical derivative replicates the hedged item and hence results in the same outcome as if that change in value was determined by a different approach. Hence, using a 'hypothetical derivative' is not a method in its own right but a mathematical expedient that can only be used to calculate the value of the hedged item. Consequently, a 'hypothetical derivative' cannot be used to include features in the value of the hedged item that only exist in the hedging instrument (but not in the hedged item). An example is debt denominated in a foreign currency (irrespective of whether it is fixed-rate or variable-rate debt). When using a hypothetical derivative to calculate the change in the value of such debt or the present value of the cumulative change in its cash flows, the hypothetical derivative cannot simply impute a charge for exchanging different currencies even though actual derivatives under which different currencies are exchanged might include such a charge (for example, cross-currency interest rate swaps).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MPWR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

MPWR Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Ba3
Balance SheetB2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBa1C
Cash FlowBa3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 679 signals.

References

  1. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
  2. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
  3. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  4. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
  5. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
  6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  7. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MPWR stock?
A: MPWR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is MPWR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MPWR Stock.
Q: Is Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MPWR stock?
A: The consensus rating for MPWR is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MPWR stock?
A: The prediction period for MPWR is (n+3 month)

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