Modelling A.I. in Economics

SSSSL SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026

Outlook: SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 01 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price will maximize investor's gains. This paper proposes a machine learning model to predict stock market price.(Li, X., Xie, H., Wang, R., Cai, Y., Cao, J., Wang, F., Min, H. and Deng, X., 2016. Empirical analysis: stock market prediction via extreme learning machine. Neural Computing and Applications, 27(1), pp.67-78.) We evaluate SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SSSSL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. Market Signals
  3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

SSSSL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SSSSL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SSSSL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SSSSL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SSSSL SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026
Time series to forecast n: 01 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026

  1. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.
  2. The following example describes a situation in which an accounting mismatch would be created in profit or loss if the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability were presented in other comprehensive income. A mortgage bank provides loans to customers and funds those loans by selling bonds with matching characteristics (eg amount outstanding, repayment profile, term and currency) in the market. The contractual terms of the loan permit the mortgage customer to prepay its loan (ie satisfy its obligation to the bank) by buying the corresponding bond at fair value in the market and delivering that bond to the mortgage bank. As a result of that contractual prepayment right, if the credit quality of the bond worsens (and, thus, the fair value of the mortgage bank's liability decreases), the fair value of the mortgage bank's loan asset also decreases. The change in the fair value of the asset reflects the mortgage customer's contractual right to prepay the mortgage loan by buying the underlying bond at fair value (which, in this example, has decreased) and delivering the bond to the mortgage bank. Consequently, the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability (the bond) will be offset in profit or loss by a corresponding change in the fair value of a financial asset (the loan). If the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk were presented in other comprehensive income there would be an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. Consequently, the mortgage bank is required to present all changes in fair value of the liability (including the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk) in profit or loss.
  3. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.
  4. Historical information is an important anchor or base from which to measure expected credit losses. However, an entity shall adjust historical data, such as credit loss experience, on the basis of current observable data to reflect the effects of the current conditions and its forecasts of future conditions that did not affect the period on which the historical data is based, and to remove the effects of the conditions in the historical period that are not relevant to the future contractual cash flows. In some cases, the best reasonable and supportable information could be the unadjusted historical information, depending on the nature of the historical information and when it was calculated, compared to circumstances at the reporting date and the characteristics of the financial instrument being considered. Estimates of changes in expected credit losses should reflect, and be directionally consistent with, changes in related observable data from period to period

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SSSSL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

SSSSL SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 755 signals.

References

  1. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  3. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  4. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  5. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  6. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
  7. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SSSSL stock?
A: SSSSL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is SSSSL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SSSSL Stock.
Q: Is SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SuRo Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes due 2026 is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SSSSL stock?
A: The consensus rating for SSSSL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SSSSL stock?
A: The prediction period for SSSSL is (n+6 month)

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