AC Investment Research Journal

TFII:TSX TFI International Inc. Research Report

Outlook: TFI International Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 05 Jan 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

TFI International Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TFII:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

TFII:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider TFI International Inc. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of TFII:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TFII:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TFII:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TFII:TSX TFI International Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 05 Jan 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for TFI International Inc.

  1. When applying the effective interest method, an entity generally amortises any fees, points paid or received, transaction costs and other premiums or discounts that are included in the calculation of the effective interest rate over the expected life of the financial instrument. However, a shorter period is used if this is the period to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate. This will be the case when the variable to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate is repriced to market rates before the expected maturity of the financial instrument. In such a case, the appropriate amortisation period is the period to the next such repricing date. For example, if a premium or discount on a floating-rate financial instrument reflects the interest that has accrued on that financial instrument since the interest was last paid, or changes in the market rates since the floating interest rate was reset to the market rates, it will be amortised to the next date when the floating interest is reset to market rates. This is because the premium or discount relates to the period to the next interest reset date because, at that date, the variable to which the premium or discount relates (ie interest rates) is reset to the market rates. If, however, the premium or discount results from a change in the credit spread over the floating rate specified in the financial instrument, or other variables that are not reset to the market rates, it is amortised over the expected life of the financial instrument.
  2. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
  3. Such designation may be used whether paragraph 4.3.3 requires the embedded derivatives to be separated from the host contract or prohibits such separation. However, paragraph 4.3.5 would not justify designating the hybrid contract as at fair value through profit or loss in the cases set out in paragraph 4.3.5(a) and (b) because doing so would not reduce complexity or increase reliability.
  4. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

TFI International Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. TFI International Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TFII:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

TFII:TSX TFI International Inc. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetB2Ba3
Leverage RatiosB2C
Cash FlowB1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 801 signals.

References

  1. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
  2. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
  3. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
  4. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
  5. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
  6. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
  7. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TFII:TSX stock?
A: TFII:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is TFII:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy TFII:TSX Stock.
Q: Is TFI International Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TFI International Inc. is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TFII:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for TFII:TSX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for TFII:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for TFII:TSX is (n+4 weeks)

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