AC Investment Research

TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares Research Report

Outlook: Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 23 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TFPM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. What is prediction in deep learning?
  2. How useful are statistical predictions?
  3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

TFPM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of TFPM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TFPM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TFPM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares
Time series to forecast n: 23 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares

  1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall determine whether the treatment in paragraph 5.7.7 would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at the date of initial application. This Standard shall be applied retrospectively on the basis of that determination.
  2. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).
  3. A portfolio of financial assets that is managed and whose performance is evaluated on a fair value basis (as described in paragraph 4.2.2(b)) is neither held to collect contractual cash flows nor held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. The entity is primarily focused on fair value information and uses that information to assess the assets' performance and to make decisions. In addition, a portfolio of financial assets that meets the definition of held for trading is not held to collect contractual cash flows or held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. For such portfolios, the collection of contractual cash flows is only incidental to achieving the business model's objective. Consequently, such portfolios of financial assets must be measured at fair value through profit or loss.
  4. If there are changes in circumstances that affect hedge effectiveness, an entity may have to change the method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements in order to ensure that the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship, including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness, are still captured.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TFPM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCC
Balance SheetBa3C
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCCaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 827 signals.

References

  1. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
  2. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  3. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  4. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
  6. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  7. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TFPM stock?
A: TFPM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is TFPM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes TFPM Stock.
Q: Is Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Common Shares is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TFPM stock?
A: The consensus rating for TFPM is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for TFPM stock?
A: The prediction period for TFPM is (n+6 month)

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