Outlook: Tompkins Financial Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 18 Jan 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

## Abstract

Tompkins Financial Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TMP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Can machine learning predict?
3. How useful are statistical predictions?

## TMP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Tompkins Financial Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TMP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TMP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## TMP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TMP Tompkins Financial Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 Jan 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Tompkins Financial Corporation Common Stock

1. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.
2. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
3. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
4. Fluctuation around a constant hedge ratio (and hence the related hedge ineffectiveness) cannot be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio in response to each particular outcome. Hence, in such circumstances, the change in the extent of offset is a matter of measuring and recognising hedge ineffectiveness but does not require rebalancing.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Tompkins Financial Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Tompkins Financial Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TMP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### TMP Tompkins Financial Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2C
Balance SheetB2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Ba2
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 748 signals.

## References

1. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
2. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
3. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
4. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
5. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
6. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
7. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TMP stock?
A: TMP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is TMP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold TMP Stock.
Q: Is Tompkins Financial Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Tompkins Financial Corporation Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TMP stock?
A: The consensus rating for TMP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for TMP stock?
A: The prediction period for TMP is (n+8 weeks)