Modelling A.I. in Economics

TYG Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock

Outlook: Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 02 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in the use of machine learning to help aid in the accurate predictions of financial markets. Despite the exciting advances in this cross-section of finance and AI, many of the current approaches are limited to using technical analysis to capture historical trends of each stock price and thus limited to certain experimental setups to obtain good prediction results. On the other hand, professional investors additionally use their rich knowledge of inter-market and inter-company relations to map the connectivity of companies and events, and use this map to make better market predictions. For instance, they would predict the movement of a certain company's stock price based not only on its former stock price trends but also on the performance of its suppliers or customers, the overall industry, macroeconomic factors and trade policies. This paper investigates the effectiveness of work at the intersection of market predictions and graph neural networks, which hold the potential to mimic the ways in which investors make decisions by incorporating company knowledge graphs directly into the predictive model.(Reddy, V.K.S., 2018. Stock market prediction using machine learning. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET), 5(10), pp.1033-1035.) We evaluate Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TYG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  2. Why do we need predictive models?
  3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

TYG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of TYG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TYG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TYG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TYG Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 02 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock

  1. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.
  2. Lifetime expected credit losses are generally expected to be recognised before a financial instrument becomes past due. Typically, credit risk increases significantly before a financial instrument becomes past due or other lagging borrower-specific factors (for example, a modification or restructuring) are observed. Consequently when reasonable and supportable information that is more forward-looking than past due information is available without undue cost or effort, it must be used to assess changes in credit risk.
  3. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39 and IFRS 7, issued in September 2019, added Section 6.8 and amended paragraph 7.2.26. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2020. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  4. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TYG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

TYG Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa1B3
Balance SheetBaa2B3
Leverage RatiosBa3Baa2
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 678 signals.

References

  1. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  2. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
  3. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  4. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
  5. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  6. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  7. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TYG stock?
A: TYG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Factor
Q: Is TYG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold TYG Stock.
Q: Is Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TYG stock?
A: The consensus rating for TYG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for TYG stock?
A: The prediction period for TYG is (n+1 year)

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