Outlook: American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 15 Feb 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

## Abstract

American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AFGD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Game Theory
2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
3. Investment Risk

## AFGD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AFGD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AFGD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AFGD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AFGD American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060
Time series to forecast n: 15 Feb 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060

1. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
2. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
3. If a call option right retained by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the asset continues to be measured at its fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the option exercise price less the time value of the option if the option is in or at the money, or (ii) the fair value of the transferred asset less the time value of the option if the option is out of the money. The adjustment to the measurement of the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the call option right. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU80, the option exercise price is CU95 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU75 (CU80 – CU5) and the carrying amount of the transferred asset is CU80 (ie its fair value)
4. It would not be acceptable to designate only some of the financial assets and financial liabilities giving rise to the inconsistency as at fair value through profit or loss if to do so would not eliminate or significantly reduce the inconsistency and would therefore not result in more relevant information. However, it would be acceptable to designate only some of a number of similar financial assets or similar financial liabilities if doing so achieves a significant reduction (and possibly a greater reduction than other allowable designations) in the inconsistency. For example, assume an entity has a number of similar financial liabilities that sum to CU100 and a number of similar financial assets that sum to CU50 but are measured on a different basis. The entity may significantly reduce the measurement inconsistency by designating at initial recognition all of the assets but only some of the liabilities (for example, individual liabilities with a combined total of CU45) as at fair value through profit or loss. However, because designation as at fair value through profit or loss can be applied only to the whole of a financial instrument, the entity in this example must designate one or more liabilities in their entirety. It could not designate either a component of a liability (eg changes in value attributable to only one risk, such as changes in a benchmark interest rate) or a proportion (ie percentage) of a liability.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AFGD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### AFGD American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosB2C
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 510 signals.

## References

1. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
2. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
3. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
4. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
5. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
6. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
7. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AFGD stock?
A: AFGD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is AFGD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AFGD Stock.
Q: Is American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Financial Group Inc. 5.625% Subordinated Debentures due 2060 is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AFGD stock?
A: The consensus rating for AFGD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AFGD stock?
A: The prediction period for AFGD is (n+8 weeks)