Outlook: AUB GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

## Abstract

AUB GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AUB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. Probability Distribution
2. What is prediction in deep learning?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

## AUB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AUB GROUP LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of AUB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AUB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AUB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AUB AUB GROUP LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for AUB GROUP LIMITED

1. In some jurisdictions, the government or a regulatory authority sets interest rates. For example, such government regulation of interest rates may be part of a broad macroeconomic policy or it may be introduced to encourage entities to invest in a particular sector of the economy. In some of these cases, the objective of the time value of money element is not to provide consideration for only the passage of time. However, despite paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9D, a regulated interest rate shall be considered a proxy for the time value of money element for the purpose of applying the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) if that regulated interest rate provides consideration that is broadly consistent with the passage of time and does not provide exposure to risks or volatility in the contractual cash flows that are inconsistent with a basic lending arrangement.
2. An entity's documentation of the hedging relationship includes how it will assess the hedge effectiveness requirements, including the method or methods used. The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated for any changes to the methods (see paragraph B6.4.17).
3. An entity's business model refers to how an entity manages its financial assets in order to generate cash flows. That is, the entity's business model determines whether cash flows will result from collecting contractual cash flows, selling financial assets or both. Consequently, this assessment is not performed on the basis of scenarios that the entity does not reasonably expect to occur, such as so-called 'worst case' or 'stress case' scenarios. For example, if an entity expects that it will sell a particular portfolio of financial assets only in a stress case scenario, that scenario would not affect the entity's assessment of the business model for those assets if the entity reasonably expects that such a scenario will not occur. If cash flows are realised in a way that is different from the entity's expectations at the date that the entity assessed the business model (for example, if the entity sells more or fewer financial assets than it expected when it classified the assets), that does not give rise to a prior period error in the entity's financial statements (see IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors) nor does it change the classification of the remaining financial assets held in that business model (ie those assets that the entity recognised in prior periods and still holds) as long as the entity considered all relevant information that was available at the time that it made the business model assessment.
4. In applying the effective interest method, an entity identifies fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument. The description of fees for financial services may not be indicative of the nature and substance of the services provided. Fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument are treated as an adjustment to the effective interest rate, unless the financial instrument is measured at fair value, with the change in fair value being recognised in profit or loss. In those cases, the fees are recognised as revenue or expense when the instrument is initially recognised.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

AUB GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. AUB GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AUB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### AUB AUB GROUP LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2B1
Balance SheetCaa2B3
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 674 signals.

## References

1. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
2. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
3. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
4. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
5. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
6. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
7. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AUB stock?
A: AUB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is AUB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AUB Stock.
Q: Is AUB GROUP LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AUB GROUP LIMITED is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AUB stock?
A: The consensus rating for AUB is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AUB stock?
A: The prediction period for AUB is (n+3 month)