CMCL Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares

Outlook: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : HoldBuy
Time series to forecast n: 19 Feb 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CMCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldBuy

Key Points

1. Prediction Modeling
2. Trading Signals
3. Is now good time to invest?

CMCL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CMCL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CMCL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CMCL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CMCL Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares
Time series to forecast n: 19 Feb 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldBuy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares

1. Lifetime expected credit losses are generally expected to be recognised before a financial instrument becomes past due. Typically, credit risk increases significantly before a financial instrument becomes past due or other lagging borrower-specific factors (for example, a modification or restructuring) are observed. Consequently when reasonable and supportable information that is more forward-looking than past due information is available without undue cost or effort, it must be used to assess changes in credit risk.
2. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
3. An entity shall amend a hedging relationship as required in paragraph 6.9.1 by the end of the reporting period during which a change required by interest rate benchmark reform is made to the hedged risk, hedged item or hedging instrument. For the avoidance of doubt, such an amendment to the formal designation of a hedging relationship constitutes neither the discontinuation of the hedging relationship nor the designation of a new hedging relationship.
4. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CMCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldBuy

CMCL Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	B1	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Caa2	C
Leverage Ratios	B1	B2
Cash Flow	Baa2	B3
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 871 signals.

References

1. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
2. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
3. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., When to Sell and When to Hold FTNT Stock. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
5. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
6. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
7. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CMCL stock?
A: CMCL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is CMCL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy CMCL Stock.
Q: Is Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Common Shares is HoldBuy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CMCL stock?
A: The consensus rating for CMCL is HoldBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CMCL stock?
A: The prediction period for CMCL is (n+4 weeks)

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