Modelling A.I. in Economics

DVA DaVita Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: DaVita Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 28 Feb 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

DaVita Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DVA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Market Outlook
  2. Probability Distribution
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

DVA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider DaVita Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of DVA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DVA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DVA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DVA DaVita Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 28 Feb 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for DaVita Inc. Common Stock

  1. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
  2. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee
  3. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
  4. An entity may manage and evaluate the performance of a group of financial liabilities or financial assets and financial liabilities in such a way that measuring that group at fair value through profit or loss results in more relevant information. The focus in this instance is on the way the entity manages and evaluates performance, instead of on the nature of its financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

DaVita Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. DaVita Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DVA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

DVA DaVita Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B2
Cash FlowB1Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 458 signals.

References

  1. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  2. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  3. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  4. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
  5. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  6. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  7. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DVA stock?
A: DVA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is DVA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes DVA Stock.
Q: Is DaVita Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for DaVita Inc. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DVA stock?
A: The consensus rating for DVA is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for DVA stock?
A: The prediction period for DVA is (n+4 weeks)

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