Modelling A.I. in Economics

ERF:TSX Enerplus Corporation (Forecast)

Outlook: Enerplus Corporation is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 13 Feb 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Enerplus Corporation prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ERF:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. Market Signals
  3. Stock Rating

ERF:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Enerplus Corporation Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ERF:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ERF:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ERF:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ERF:TSX Enerplus Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 13 Feb 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Enerplus Corporation

  1. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
  2. When a group of items that constitute a net position is designated as a hedged item, an entity shall designate the overall group of items that includes the items that can make up the net position. An entity is not permitted to designate a non-specific abstract amount of a net position. For example, an entity has a group of firm sale commitments in nine months' time for FC100 and a group of firm purchase commitments in 18 months' time for FC120. The entity cannot designate an abstract amount of a net position up to FC20. Instead, it must designate a gross amount of purchases and a gross amount of sales that together give rise to the hedged net position. An entity shall designate gross positions that give rise to the net position so that the entity is able to comply with the requirements for the accounting for qualifying hedging relationships.
  3. For the purposes of applying the requirements in paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8, an accounting mismatch is not caused solely by the measurement method that an entity uses to determine the effects of changes in a liability's credit risk. An accounting mismatch in profit or loss would arise only when the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk (as defined in IFRS 7) are expected to be offset by changes in the fair value of another financial instrument. A mismatch that arises solely as a result of the measurement method (ie because an entity does not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from some other changes in its fair value) does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8. For example, an entity may not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from changes in liquidity risk. If the entity presents the combined effect of both factors in other comprehensive income, a mismatch may occur because changes in liquidity risk may be included in the fair value measurement of the entity's financial assets and the entire fair value change of those assets is presented in profit or loss. However, such a mismatch is caused by measurement imprecision, not the offsetting relationship described in paragraph B5.7.6 and, therefore, does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8.
  4. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Enerplus Corporation is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Enerplus Corporation prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ERF:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

ERF:TSX Enerplus Corporation Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa2Ba3
Balance SheetB1Ba3
Leverage RatiosBa3Baa2
Cash FlowB3Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Ba1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 483 signals.

References

  1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  2. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  4. Imai K, Ratkovic M. 2013. Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation. Ann. Appl. Stat. 7:443–70
  5. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
  6. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  7. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ERF:TSX stock?
A: ERF:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is ERF:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ERF:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Enerplus Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Enerplus Corporation is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ERF:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for ERF:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ERF:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for ERF:TSX is (n+8 weeks)

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