Modelling A.I. in Economics

GED GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED.

Outlook: GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 27 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED. prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GED stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Can statistics predict the future?
  2. What is prediction model?
  3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

GED Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED. Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GED stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GED stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GED Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GED GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED.
Time series to forecast n: 27 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED.

  1. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
  2. When measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity shall consider the time value of money. Consequently, the entity determines the value of the hedged item on a present value basis and therefore the change in the value of the hedged item also includes the effect of the time value of money.
  3. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
  4. If a call option right retained by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the asset continues to be measured at its fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the option exercise price less the time value of the option if the option is in or at the money, or (ii) the fair value of the transferred asset less the time value of the option if the option is out of the money. The adjustment to the measurement of the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the call option right. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU80, the option exercise price is CU95 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU75 (CU80 – CU5) and the carrying amount of the transferred asset is CU80 (ie its fair value)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED. prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GED stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

GED GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBa2B1
Leverage RatiosCCaa2
Cash FlowB2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 848 signals.

References

  1. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
  2. J. Z. Leibo, V. Zambaldi, M. Lanctot, J. Marecki, and T. Graepel. Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning in Sequential Social Dilemmas. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2017), Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2017
  3. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
  4. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  5. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
  6. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  7. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GED stock?
A: GED stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is GED stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes GED Stock.
Q: Is GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GOLDEN DEEPS LIMITED. is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GED stock?
A: The consensus rating for GED is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for GED stock?
A: The prediction period for GED is (n+3 month)



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