Modelling A.I. in Economics

LEX LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED

Outlook: LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LEX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Nash Equilibria
  2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  3. Can statistics predict the future?

LEX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LEX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LEX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LEX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LEX LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED

  1. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  2. A single hedging instrument may be designated as a hedging instrument of more than one type of risk, provided that there is a specific designation of the hedging instrument and of the different risk positions as hedged items. Those hedged items can be in different hedging relationships.
  3. Paragraph 6.3.6 states that in consolidated financial statements the foreign currency risk of a highly probable forecast intragroup transaction may qualify as a hedged item in a cash flow hedge, provided that the transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the entity entering into that transaction and that the foreign currency risk will affect consolidated profit or loss. For this purpose an entity can be a parent, subsidiary, associate, joint arrangement or branch. If the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction does not affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction cannot qualify as a hedged item. This is usually the case for royalty payments, interest payments or management charges between members of the same group, unless there is a related external transaction. However, when the foreign currency risk of a forecast intragroup transaction will affect consolidated profit or loss, the intragroup transaction can qualify as a hedged item. An example is forecast sales or purchases of inventories between members of the same group if there is an onward sale of the inventory to a party external to the group. Similarly, a forecast intragroup sale of plant and equipment from the group entity that manufactured it to a group entity that will use the plant and equipment in its operations may affect consolidated profit or loss. This could occur, for example, because the plant and equipment will be depreciated by the purchasing entity and the amount initially recognised for the plant and equipment may change if the forecast intragroup transaction is denominated in a currency other than the functional currency of the purchasing entity.
  4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LEX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

LEX LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCC
Balance SheetCCaa2
Leverage RatiosCB2
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 479 signals.

References

  1. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  2. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
  3. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  4. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  5. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  6. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  7. Abadie A, Imbens GW. 2011. Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 29:1–11
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LEX stock?
A: LEX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LEX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LEX Stock.
Q: Is LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LEFROY EXPLORATION LIMITED is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LEX stock?
A: The consensus rating for LEX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LEX stock?
A: The prediction period for LEX is (n+1 year)



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