Outlook: ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE HOLDINGS PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 04 Feb 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

## Abstract

ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE HOLDINGS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ALFA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

## LON:ALFA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE HOLDINGS PLC Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ALFA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ALFA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:ALFA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ALFA ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE HOLDINGS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 04 Feb 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE HOLDINGS PLC

1. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).
2. An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.
3. A similar example of a non-financial item is a specific type of crude oil from a particular oil field that is priced off the relevant benchmark crude oil. If an entity sells that crude oil under a contract using a contractual pricing formula that sets the price per barrel at the benchmark crude oil price minus CU10 with a floor of CU15, the entity can designate as the hedged item the entire cash flow variability under the sales contract that is attributable to the change in the benchmark crude oil price. However, the entity cannot designate a component that is equal to the full change in the benchmark crude oil price. Hence, as long as the forward price (for each delivery) does not fall below CU25, the hedged item has the same cash flow variability as a crude oil sale at the benchmark crude oil price (or with a positive spread). However, if the forward price for any delivery falls below CU25, the hedged item has a lower cash flow variability than a crude oil sale at the benchmark crude oil price (or with a positive spread).
4. If a financial instrument is designated in accordance with paragraph 6.7.1 as measured at fair value through profit or loss after its initial recognition, or was previously not recognised, the difference at the time of designation between the carrying amount, if any, and the fair value shall immediately be recognised in profit or loss. For financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A, the cumulative gain or loss previously recognised in other comprehensive income shall immediately be reclassified from equity to profit or loss as a reclassification adjustment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE HOLDINGS PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE HOLDINGS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ALFA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### LON:ALFA ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE HOLDINGS PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2B1
Leverage RatiosBa3Baa2
Cash FlowB1B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 782 signals.

## References

1. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
2. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
3. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
4. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
5. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
6. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
7. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ALFA stock?
A: LON:ALFA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is LON:ALFA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ALFA Stock.
Q: Is ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE HOLDINGS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ALFA FINANCIAL SOFTWARE HOLDINGS PLC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ALFA stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ALFA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ALFA stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ALFA is (n+4 weeks)