AC Investment Research Journal

LON:AREC ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC Research Report

Outlook: ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 04 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:AREC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What is prediction model?
  2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

LON:AREC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AREC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AREC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:AREC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AREC ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 04 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC

  1. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  2. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
  3. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.
  4. Annual Improvements to IFRSs 2010–2012 Cycle, issued in December 2013, amended paragraphs 4.2.1 and 5.7.5 as a consequential amendment derived from the amendment to IFRS 3. An entity shall apply that amendment prospectively to business combinations to which the amendment to IFRS 3 applies.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:AREC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:AREC ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba1
Cash FlowBaa2Ba1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 551 signals.

References

  1. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  2. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  3. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
  4. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
  5. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
  6. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  7. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AREC stock?
A: LON:AREC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Factor
Q: Is LON:AREC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:AREC Stock.
Q: Is ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ARECOR THERAPEUTICS PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AREC stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AREC is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AREC stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AREC is (n+1 year)

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