Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:BMTO BRAIME GROUP PLC

Outlook: BRAIME GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : SellHold
Time series to forecast n: 22 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

BRAIME GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:BMTO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellHold

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

LON:BMTO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BRAIME GROUP PLC Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BMTO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BMTO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BMTO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BMTO BRAIME GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 22 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellHold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for BRAIME GROUP PLC

  1. Accordingly the date of the modification shall be treated as the date of initial recognition of that financial asset when applying the impairment requirements to the modified financial asset. This typically means measuring the loss allowance at an amount equal to 12-month expected credit losses until the requirements for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses in paragraph 5.5.3 are met. However, in some unusual circumstances following a modification that results in derecognition of the original financial asset, there may be evidence that the modified financial asset is credit-impaired at initial recognition, and thus, the financial asset should be recognised as an originated credit-impaired financial asset. This might occur, for example, in a situation in which there was a substantial modification of a distressed asset that resulted in the derecognition of the original financial asset. In such a case, it may be possible for the modification to result in a new financial asset which is credit-impaired at initial recognition.
  2. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
  3. For hedges other than hedges of foreign currency risk, when an entity designates a non-derivative financial asset or a non-derivative financial liability measured at fair value through profit or loss as a hedging instrument, it may only designate the non-derivative financial instrument in its entirety or a proportion of it.
  4. IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

BRAIME GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. BRAIME GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:BMTO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellHold

LON:BMTO BRAIME GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCaa2Ba2
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 872 signals.

References

  1. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
  2. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
  3. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
  4. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  5. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  6. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
  7. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BMTO stock?
A: LON:BMTO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is LON:BMTO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellHold LON:BMTO Stock.
Q: Is BRAIME GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BRAIME GROUP PLC is SellHold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BMTO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BMTO is SellHold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BMTO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BMTO is (n+3 month)



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