LON:FTV FORESIGHT VCT PLC Research Report

Outlook: FORESIGHT VCT PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 07 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

FORESIGHT VCT PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:FTV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. Is Target price a good indicator?
2. Operational Risk
3. Trading Interaction

LON:FTV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider FORESIGHT VCT PLC Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:FTV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:FTV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:FTV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:FTV FORESIGHT VCT PLC
Time series to forecast n: 07 Feb 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for FORESIGHT VCT PLC

1. For the purpose of applying the requirement in paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
2. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
3. If a variable-rate financial liability bears interest of (for example) three-month LIBOR minus 20 basis points (with a floor at zero basis points), an entity can designate as the hedged item the change in the cash flows of that entire liability (ie three-month LIBOR minus 20 basis points—including the floor) that is attributable to changes in LIBOR. Hence, as long as the three-month LIBOR forward curve for the remaining life of that liability does not fall below 20 basis points, the hedged item has the same cash flow variability as a liability that bears interest at three-month LIBOR with a zero or positive spread. However, if the three-month LIBOR forward curve for the remaining life of that liability (or a part of it) falls below 20 basis points, the hedged item has a lower cash flow variability than a liability that bears interest at threemonth LIBOR with a zero or positive spread.
4. In some circumstances, the renegotiation or modification of the contractual cash flows of a financial asset can lead to the derecognition of the existing financial asset in accordance with this Standard. When the modification of a financial asset results in the derecognition of the existing financial asset and the subsequent recognition of the modified financial asset, the modified asset is considered a 'new' financial asset for the purposes of this Standard.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

FORESIGHT VCT PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. FORESIGHT VCT PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:FTV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:FTV FORESIGHT VCT PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Ba2	Caa2
Balance Sheet	B1	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	B1	C
Cash Flow	Caa2	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	B1	B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 579 signals.

References

1. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
2. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
3. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
4. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
7. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:FTV stock?
A: LON:FTV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is LON:FTV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:FTV Stock.
Q: Is FORESIGHT VCT PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FORESIGHT VCT PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:FTV stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:FTV is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:FTV stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:FTV is (n+3 month)

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