Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:HWC HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 24 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:HWC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  2. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

LON:HWC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HWC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HWC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HWC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HWC HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC
Time series to forecast n: 24 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC

  1. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss
  2. If a financial instrument is designated in accordance with paragraph 6.7.1 as measured at fair value through profit or loss after its initial recognition, or was previously not recognised, the difference at the time of designation between the carrying amount, if any, and the fair value shall immediately be recognised in profit or loss. For financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A, the cumulative gain or loss previously recognised in other comprehensive income shall immediately be reclassified from equity to profit or loss as a reclassification adjustment.
  3. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
  4. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:HWC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:HWC HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCaa2B1
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 852 signals.

References

  1. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  3. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  4. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  5. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
  6. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
  7. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HWC stock?
A: LON:HWC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is LON:HWC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:HWC Stock.
Q: Is HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HIGHWAY CAPITAL PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HWC stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HWC is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HWC stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HWC is (n+1 year)

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