LON:SIV SIVOTA PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: SIVOTA PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 22 Feb 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

SIVOTA PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:SIV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Game Theory
2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

LON:SIV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SIVOTA PLC Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:SIV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:SIV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:SIV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:SIV SIVOTA PLC
Time series to forecast n: 22 Feb 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for SIVOTA PLC

1. An entity that first applies these amendments after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.32–7.2.34. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
2. Financial assets that are held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets in order to collect contractual cash flows are managed to realise cash flows by collecting contractual payments over the life of the instrument. That is, the entity manages the assets held within the portfolio to collect those particular contractual cash flows (instead of managing the overall return on the portfolio by both holding and selling assets). In determining whether cash flows are going to be realised by collecting the financial assets' contractual cash flows, it is necessary to consider the frequency, value and timing of sales in prior periods, the reasons for those sales and expectations about future sales activity. However sales in themselves do not determine the business model and therefore cannot be considered in isolation. Instead, information about past sales and expectations about future sales provide evidence related to how the entity's stated objective for managing the financial assets is achieved and, specifically, how cash flows are realised. An entity must consider information about past sales within the context of the reasons for those sales and the conditions that existed at that time as compared to current conditions.
3. In some cases, the qualitative and non-statistical quantitative information available may be sufficient to determine that a financial instrument has met the criterion for the recognition of a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses. That is, the information does not need to flow through a statistical model or credit ratings process in order to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the credit risk of the financial instrument. In other cases, an entity may need to consider other information, including information from its statistical models or credit ratings processes.
4. In some circumstances an entity does not have reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to measure lifetime expected credit losses on an individual instrument basis. In that case, lifetime expected credit losses shall be recognised on a collective basis that considers comprehensive credit risk information. This comprehensive credit risk information must incorporate not only past due information but also all relevant credit information, including forward-looking macroeconomic information, in order to approximate the result of recognising lifetime expected credit losses when there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on an individual instrument level.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

SIVOTA PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. SIVOTA PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:SIV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:SIV SIVOTA PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Caa2	Ba1
Balance Sheet	B2	C
Leverage Ratios	C	Baa2
Cash Flow	B2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	B3	Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 605 signals.

References

1. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
2. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
3. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
4. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
5. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
6. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
7. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:SIV stock?
A: LON:SIV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is LON:SIV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:SIV Stock.
Q: Is SIVOTA PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SIVOTA PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:SIV stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:SIV is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:SIV stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:SIV is (n+16 weeks)

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