LON:SMT SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

Outlook: SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 09 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:SMT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
2. Trading Signals
3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

LON:SMT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:SMT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:SMT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:SMT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:SMT SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 09 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

1. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
2. A layer component that includes a prepayment option is not eligible to be designated as a hedged item in a fair value hedge if the prepayment option's fair value is affected by changes in the hedged risk, unless the designated layer includes the effect of the related prepayment option when determining the change in the fair value of the hedged item.
3. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
4. An entity that first applies these amendments at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.31–7.2.34.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:SMT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:SMT SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Baa2	B1
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	B3	C
Cash Flow	B2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 847 signals.

References

1. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
2. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is FFBC Stock Buy or Sell?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
4. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
5. Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.
6. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
7. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:SMT stock?
A: LON:SMT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is LON:SMT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:SMT Stock.
Q: Is SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SCOTTISH MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:SMT stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:SMT is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:SMT stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:SMT is (n+1 year)

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