Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:TNT TINTRA PLC

Outlook: TINTRA PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 28 Feb 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

TINTRA PLC prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:TNT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

LON:TNT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider TINTRA PLC Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:TNT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:TNT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:TNT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:TNT TINTRA PLC
Time series to forecast n: 28 Feb 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for TINTRA PLC

  1. A similar example of a non-financial item is a specific type of crude oil from a particular oil field that is priced off the relevant benchmark crude oil. If an entity sells that crude oil under a contract using a contractual pricing formula that sets the price per barrel at the benchmark crude oil price minus CU10 with a floor of CU15, the entity can designate as the hedged item the entire cash flow variability under the sales contract that is attributable to the change in the benchmark crude oil price. However, the entity cannot designate a component that is equal to the full change in the benchmark crude oil price. Hence, as long as the forward price (for each delivery) does not fall below CU25, the hedged item has the same cash flow variability as a crude oil sale at the benchmark crude oil price (or with a positive spread). However, if the forward price for any delivery falls below CU25, the hedged item has a lower cash flow variability than a crude oil sale at the benchmark crude oil price (or with a positive spread).
  2. For example, when the critical terms (such as the nominal amount, maturity and underlying) of the hedging instrument and the hedged item match or are closely aligned, it might be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a qualitative assessment of those critical terms that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that will generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk and hence that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6).
  3. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)
  4. When a group of items that constitute a net position is designated as a hedged item, an entity shall designate the overall group of items that includes the items that can make up the net position. An entity is not permitted to designate a non-specific abstract amount of a net position. For example, an entity has a group of firm sale commitments in nine months' time for FC100 and a group of firm purchase commitments in 18 months' time for FC120. The entity cannot designate an abstract amount of a net position up to FC20. Instead, it must designate a gross amount of purchases and a gross amount of sales that together give rise to the hedged net position. An entity shall designate gross positions that give rise to the net position so that the entity is able to comply with the requirements for the accounting for qualifying hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

TINTRA PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. TINTRA PLC prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:TNT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:TNT TINTRA PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetB2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowBaa2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 709 signals.

References

  1. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  2. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
  3. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
  4. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
  5. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
  6. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
  7. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:TNT stock?
A: LON:TNT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is LON:TNT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:TNT Stock.
Q: Is TINTRA PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TINTRA PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:TNT stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:TNT is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:TNT stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:TNT is (n+6 month)

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