Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:TPK TRAVIS PERKINS PLC

Outlook: TRAVIS PERKINS PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 15 Feb 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

TRAVIS PERKINS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:TPK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  2. Market Risk
  3. Decision Making

LON:TPK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider TRAVIS PERKINS PLC Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:TPK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:TPK stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:TPK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:TPK TRAVIS PERKINS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 15 Feb 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for TRAVIS PERKINS PLC

  1. Paragraph 4.1.1(a) requires an entity to classify financial assets on the basis of the entity's business model for managing the financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. An entity assesses whether its financial assets meet the condition in paragraph 4.1.2(a) or the condition in paragraph 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the business model as determined by the entity's key management personnel (as defined in IAS 24 Related Party Disclosures).
  2. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
  3. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  4. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

TRAVIS PERKINS PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. TRAVIS PERKINS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:TPK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:TPK TRAVIS PERKINS PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1B1
Balance SheetCB1
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowCaa2B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 548 signals.

References

  1. Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.
  2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., When to Sell and When to Hold AQN Stock. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  3. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
  4. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  5. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  6. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  7. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:TPK stock?
A: LON:TPK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is LON:TPK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:TPK Stock.
Q: Is TRAVIS PERKINS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TRAVIS PERKINS PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:TPK stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:TPK is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:TPK stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:TPK is (n+16 weeks)



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