Modelling A.I. in Economics

MET MetLife Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: MetLife Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 18 Feb 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)

Abstract

MetLife Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MET stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Market Signals
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. What is neural prediction?

MET Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider MetLife Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MET stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MET stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MET Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MET MetLife Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 Feb 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for MetLife Inc. Common Stock

  1. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  2. An entity shall apply this Standard retrospectively, in accordance with IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.4–7.2.26 and 7.2.28. This Standard shall not be applied to items that have already been derecognised at the date of initial application.
  3. Conversely, if changes in the extent of offset indicate that the fluctuation is around a hedge ratio that is different from the hedge ratio that is currently used for that hedging relationship, or that there is a trend leading away from that hedge ratio, hedge ineffectiveness can be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio, whereas retaining the hedge ratio would increasingly produce hedge ineffectiveness. Hence, in such circumstances, an entity must evaluate whether the hedging relationship reflects an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. If the hedge ratio is adjusted, it also affects the measurement and recognition of hedge ineffectiveness because, on rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship must be determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraph B6.5.8.
  4. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedging instrument was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, a nominal amount of 90 tonnes of the hedging instrument volume would remain (see paragraph B6.5.16 for the consequences for the derivative volume (ie the 10 tonnes) that is no longer a part of the hedging relationship).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

MetLife Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. MetLife Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MET stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

MET MetLife Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Ba3
Balance SheetBa1Ba2
Leverage RatiosB3B3
Cash FlowCaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 626 signals.

References

  1. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  2. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
  3. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  4. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  5. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  6. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
  7. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MET stock?
A: MET stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is MET stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MET Stock.
Q: Is MetLife Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MetLife Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MET stock?
A: The consensus rating for MET is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MET stock?
A: The prediction period for MET is (n+16 weeks)

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