Outlook: Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

## Abstract

Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MGRB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. What is a prediction confidence?
2. Reaction Function

## MGRB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MGRB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MGRB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## MGRB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MGRB Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060

1. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
2. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
3. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
4. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MGRB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### MGRB Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCB2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B2
Cash FlowBaa2Ba2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 834 signals.

## References

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3. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
4. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
5. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
6. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
7. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MGRB stock?
A: MGRB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is MGRB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell MGRB Stock.
Q: Is Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MGRB stock?
A: The consensus rating for MGRB is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for MGRB stock?
A: The prediction period for MGRB is (n+6 month)