Modelling A.I. in Economics

NOV NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED (Forecast)

Outlook: NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : HoldBuy
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldBuy

Key Points

  1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  2. Can machine learning predict?
  3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

NOV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NOV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NOV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NOV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NOV NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldBuy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED

  1. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
  2. Rebalancing is accounted for as a continuation of the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraphs B6.5.9–B6.5.21. On rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship is determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship.
  3. If a collar, in the form of a purchased call and written put, prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the asset at fair value, it continues to measure the asset at fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the sum of the call exercise price and fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option, if the call option is in or at the money, or (ii) the sum of the fair value of the asset and the fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option if the call option is out of the money. The adjustment to the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity. For example, assume an entity transfers a financial asset that is measured at fair value while simultaneously purchasing a call with an exercise price of CU120 and writing a put with an exercise price of CU80. Assume also that the fair value of the asset is CU100 at the date of the transfer. The time value of the put and call are CU1 and CU5 respectively. In this case, the entity recognises an asset of CU100 (the fair value of the asset) and a liability of CU96 [(CU100 + CU1) – CU5]. This gives a net asset value of CU4, which is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity.
  4. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NOV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldBuy

NOV NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosBaa2B2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 791 signals.

References

  1. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  2. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  3. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  4. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
  5. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  6. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  7. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NOV stock?
A: NOV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is NOV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy NOV Stock.
Q: Is NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NOVATTI GROUP LIMITED is HoldBuy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NOV stock?
A: The consensus rating for NOV is HoldBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for NOV stock?
A: The prediction period for NOV is (n+1 year)

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