PHM PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PHM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
2. Is now good time to invest?
3. Can statistics predict the future?

PHM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PHM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PHM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PHM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PHM PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 17 Feb 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock

1. Paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.13 provide exceptions to the requirements specified in those paragraphs only. An entity shall apply all other hedge accounting requirements in this Standard, including the qualifying criteria in paragraph 6.4.1, to hedging relationships that were directly affected by interest rate benchmark reform.
2. In some circumstances an entity does not have reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to measure lifetime expected credit losses on an individual instrument basis. In that case, lifetime expected credit losses shall be recognised on a collective basis that considers comprehensive credit risk information. This comprehensive credit risk information must incorporate not only past due information but also all relevant credit information, including forward-looking macroeconomic information, in order to approximate the result of recognising lifetime expected credit losses when there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on an individual instrument level.
3. IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.
4. An entity shall apply this Standard for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity elects to apply this Standard early, it must disclose that fact and apply all of the requirements in this Standard at the same time (but see also paragraphs 7.1.2, 7.2.21 and 7.3.2). It shall also, at the same time, apply the amendments in Appendix C.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PHM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

PHM PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Baa2	C
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	C	B3
Cash Flow	Baa2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 663 signals.

References

1. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
2. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you know when a stock will go up or down?(STJ Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
4. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
5. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
6. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
7. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PHM stock?
A: PHM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is PHM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PHM Stock.
Q: Is PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PulteGroup Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PHM stock?
A: The consensus rating for PHM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PHM stock?
A: The prediction period for PHM is (n+8 weeks)

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