Modelling A.I. in Economics

PSA^I Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share

Outlook: Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 18 Feb 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PSA^I stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. What is prediction in deep learning?
  2. What is prediction model?
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

PSA^I Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PSA^I stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PSA^I stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PSA^I Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PSA^I Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share
Time series to forecast n: 18 Feb 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share

  1. An example of a fair value hedge is a hedge of exposure to changes in the fair value of a fixed-rate debt instrument arising from changes in interest rates. Such a hedge could be entered into by the issuer or by the holder.
  2. When applying the effective interest method, an entity generally amortises any fees, points paid or received, transaction costs and other premiums or discounts that are included in the calculation of the effective interest rate over the expected life of the financial instrument. However, a shorter period is used if this is the period to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate. This will be the case when the variable to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate is repriced to market rates before the expected maturity of the financial instrument. In such a case, the appropriate amortisation period is the period to the next such repricing date. For example, if a premium or discount on a floating-rate financial instrument reflects the interest that has accrued on that financial instrument since the interest was last paid, or changes in the market rates since the floating interest rate was reset to the market rates, it will be amortised to the next date when the floating interest is reset to market rates. This is because the premium or discount relates to the period to the next interest reset date because, at that date, the variable to which the premium or discount relates (ie interest rates) is reset to the market rates. If, however, the premium or discount results from a change in the credit spread over the floating rate specified in the financial instrument, or other variables that are not reset to the market rates, it is amortised over the expected life of the financial instrument.
  3. The accounting for the time value of options in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15 applies only to the extent that the time value relates to the hedged item (aligned time value). The time value of an option relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the option (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the option and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned time value, ie how much of the time value included in the premium (actual time value) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15). An entity determines the aligned time value using the valuation of the option that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
  4. In accordance with the hedge effectiveness requirements, the hedge ratio of the hedging relationship must be the same as that resulting from the quantity of the hedged item that the entity actually hedges and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge that quantity of hedged item. Hence, if an entity hedges less than 100 per cent of the exposure on an item, such as 85 per cent, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from 85 per cent of the exposure and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge those 85 per cent. Similarly, if, for example, an entity hedges an exposure using a nominal amount of 40 units of a financial instrument, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from that quantity of 40 units (ie the entity must not use a hedge ratio based on a higher quantity of units that it might hold in total or a lower quantity of units) and the quantity of the hedged item that it actually hedges with those 40 units.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PSA^I stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

PSA^I Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2B3
Balance SheetB2Ba3
Leverage RatiosB1Caa2
Cash FlowCaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 470 signals.

References

  1. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
  2. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
  3. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  4. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
  5. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  6. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  7. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PSA^I stock?
A: PSA^I stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Beta
Q: Is PSA^I stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PSA^I Stock.
Q: Is Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Public Storage Depositary Shares Each Representing 1/1000 of a 4.875% Cumulative Preferred Share of Beneficial Interest Series I par value $0.01 per share is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PSA^I stock?
A: The consensus rating for PSA^I is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PSA^I stock?
A: The prediction period for PSA^I is (n+8 weeks)

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