Outlook: Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Time series to forecast n: 27 Feb 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

## Abstract

Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TCOM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

## Key Points

1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
2. Operational Risk
3. Reaction Function

## TCOM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TCOM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Factor)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TCOM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## TCOM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TCOM Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 27 Feb 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares

1. For example, an entity may use this condition to designate financial liabilities as at fair value through profit or loss if it meets the principle in paragraph 4.2.2(b) and the entity has financial assets and financial liabilities that share one or more risks and those risks are managed and evaluated on a fair value basis in accordance with a documented policy of asset and liability management. An example could be an entity that has issued 'structured products' containing multiple embedded derivatives and manages the resulting risks on a fair value basis using a mix of derivative and non-derivative financial instruments
2. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
3. An entity shall assess at the inception of the hedging relationship, and on an ongoing basis, whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. At a minimum, an entity shall perform the ongoing assessment at each reporting date or upon a significant change in the circumstances affecting the hedge effectiveness requirements, whichever comes first. The assessment relates to expectations about hedge effectiveness and is therefore only forward-looking.
4. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TCOM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

### TCOM Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Baa2
Balance SheetCC
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 459 signals.

## References

1. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
2. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
4. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
5. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
6. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
7. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TCOM stock?
A: TCOM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Factor
Q: Is TCOM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy TCOM Stock.
Q: Is Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TCOM stock?
A: The consensus rating for TCOM is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for TCOM stock?
A: The prediction period for TCOM is (n+6 month)