Modelling A.I. in Economics

ATLCL Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 (Forecast)

Outlook: Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 25 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ATLCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  2. Decision Making
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

ATLCL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ATLCL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ATLCL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ATLCL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ATLCL Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026
Time series to forecast n: 25 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026

  1. Leverage is a contractual cash flow characteristic of some financial assets. Leverage increases the variability of the contractual cash flows with the result that they do not have the economic characteristics of interest. Stand-alone option, forward and swap contracts are examples of financial assets that include such leverage. Thus, such contracts do not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and cannot be subsequently measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  2. To calculate the change in the value of the hedged item for the purpose of measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity may use a derivative that would have terms that match the critical terms of the hedged item (this is commonly referred to as a 'hypothetical derivative'), and, for example for a hedge of a forecast transaction, would be calibrated using the hedged price (or rate) level. For example, if the hedge was for a two-sided risk at the current market level, the hypothetical derivative would represent a hypothetical forward contract that is calibrated to a value of nil at the time of designation of the hedging relationship. If the hedge was for example for a one-sided risk, the hypothetical derivative would represent the intrinsic value of a hypothetical option that at the time of designation of the hedging relationship is at the money if the hedged price level is the current market level, or out of the money if the hedged price level is above (or, for a hedge of a long position, below) the current market level. Using a hypothetical derivative is one possible way of calculating the change in the value of the hedged item. The hypothetical derivative replicates the hedged item and hence results in the same outcome as if that change in value was determined by a different approach. Hence, using a 'hypothetical derivative' is not a method in its own right but a mathematical expedient that can only be used to calculate the value of the hedged item. Consequently, a 'hypothetical derivative' cannot be used to include features in the value of the hedged item that only exist in the hedging instrument (but not in the hedged item). An example is debt denominated in a foreign currency (irrespective of whether it is fixed-rate or variable-rate debt). When using a hypothetical derivative to calculate the change in the value of such debt or the present value of the cumulative change in its cash flows, the hypothetical derivative cannot simply impute a charge for exchanging different currencies even though actual derivatives under which different currencies are exchanged might include such a charge (for example, cross-currency interest rate swaps).
  3. An alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component that is not separately identifiable (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) at the date it is designated shall be deemed to have met that requirement at that date, if, and only if, the entity reasonably expects the alternative benchmark rate will be separately identifiable within 24 months. The 24-month period applies to each alternative benchmark rate separately and starts from the date the entity designates the alternative benchmark rate as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time (ie the 24- month period applies on a rate-by-rate basis).
  4. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ATLCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

ATLCL Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetB3Baa2
Leverage RatiosBa1B2
Cash FlowBa1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 535 signals.

References

  1. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  2. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Short/Long Term Stocks: FOX Stock Forecast. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  4. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  5. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  6. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
  7. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ATLCL stock?
A: ATLCL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is ATLCL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ATLCL Stock.
Q: Is Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ATLCL stock?
A: The consensus rating for ATLCL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ATLCL stock?
A: The prediction period for ATLCL is (n+16 weeks)

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