Modelling A.I. in Economics

BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share

Outlook: Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 28 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BABA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What is neural prediction?
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. Probability Distribution

BABA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of BABA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BABA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BABA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share
Time series to forecast n: 28 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share

  1. IFRS 17, issued in May 2017, amended paragraphs 2.1, B2.1, B2.4, B2.5 and B4.1.30, and added paragraph 3.3.5. Amendments to IFRS 17, issued in June 2020, further amended paragraph 2.1 and added paragraphs 7.2.36‒7.2.42. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 17.
  2. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
  3. When an entity discontinues measuring the financial instrument that gives rise to the credit risk, or a proportion of that financial instrument, at fair value through profit or loss, that financial instrument's fair value at the date of discontinuation becomes its new carrying amount. Subsequently, the same measurement that was used before designating the financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss shall be applied (including amortisation that results from the new carrying amount). For example, a financial asset that had originally been classified as measured at amortised cost would revert to that measurement and its effective interest rate would be recalculated based on its new gross carrying amount on the date of discontinuing measurement at fair value through profit or loss.
  4. The requirements in paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.8 may cease to apply at different times. Therefore, in applying paragraph 6.9.1, an entity may be required to amend the formal designation of its hedging relationships at different times, or may be required to amend the formal designation of a hedging relationship more than once. When, and only when, such a change is made to the hedge designation, an entity shall apply paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.12 as applicable. An entity also shall apply paragraph 6.5.8 (for a fair value hedge) or paragraph 6.5.11 (for a cash flow hedge) to account for any changes in the fair value of the hedged item or the hedging instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BABA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosBa3Ba1
Cash FlowBaa2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 703 signals.

References

  1. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  2. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
  3. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
  4. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
  5. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
  6. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  7. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BABA stock?
A: BABA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is BABA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BABA Stock.
Q: Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BABA stock?
A: The consensus rating for BABA is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for BABA stock?
A: The prediction period for BABA is (n+1 year)



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