CHCO City Holding Company Common Stock Research Report

Outlook: City Holding Company Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 18 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

City Holding Company Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CHCO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

1. Can stock prices be predicted?
2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

CHCO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider City Holding Company Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CHCO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CHCO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CHCO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CHCO City Holding Company Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for City Holding Company Common Stock

1. To calculate the change in the value of the hedged item for the purpose of measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity may use a derivative that would have terms that match the critical terms of the hedged item (this is commonly referred to as a 'hypothetical derivative'), and, for example for a hedge of a forecast transaction, would be calibrated using the hedged price (or rate) level. For example, if the hedge was for a two-sided risk at the current market level, the hypothetical derivative would represent a hypothetical forward contract that is calibrated to a value of nil at the time of designation of the hedging relationship. If the hedge was for example for a one-sided risk, the hypothetical derivative would represent the intrinsic value of a hypothetical option that at the time of designation of the hedging relationship is at the money if the hedged price level is the current market level, or out of the money if the hedged price level is above (or, for a hedge of a long position, below) the current market level. Using a hypothetical derivative is one possible way of calculating the change in the value of the hedged item. The hypothetical derivative replicates the hedged item and hence results in the same outcome as if that change in value was determined by a different approach. Hence, using a 'hypothetical derivative' is not a method in its own right but a mathematical expedient that can only be used to calculate the value of the hedged item. Consequently, a 'hypothetical derivative' cannot be used to include features in the value of the hedged item that only exist in the hedging instrument (but not in the hedged item). An example is debt denominated in a foreign currency (irrespective of whether it is fixed-rate or variable-rate debt). When using a hypothetical derivative to calculate the change in the value of such debt or the present value of the cumulative change in its cash flows, the hypothetical derivative cannot simply impute a charge for exchanging different currencies even though actual derivatives under which different currencies are exchanged might include such a charge (for example, cross-currency interest rate swaps).
2. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
3. Accordingly the date of the modification shall be treated as the date of initial recognition of that financial asset when applying the impairment requirements to the modified financial asset. This typically means measuring the loss allowance at an amount equal to 12-month expected credit losses until the requirements for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses in paragraph 5.5.3 are met. However, in some unusual circumstances following a modification that results in derecognition of the original financial asset, there may be evidence that the modified financial asset is credit-impaired at initial recognition, and thus, the financial asset should be recognised as an originated credit-impaired financial asset. This might occur, for example, in a situation in which there was a substantial modification of a distressed asset that resulted in the derecognition of the original financial asset. In such a case, it may be possible for the modification to result in a new financial asset which is credit-impaired at initial recognition.
4. For the purpose of determining whether a forecast transaction (or a component thereof) is highly probable as required by paragraph 6.3.3, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

City Holding Company Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. City Holding Company Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CHCO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

CHCO City Holding Company Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Ba2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	C
Leverage Ratios	B1	Baa2
Cash Flow	Caa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba1	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 620 signals.

References

1. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
2. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
3. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
4. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can neural networks predict stock market?(ATVI Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
6. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
7. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CHCO stock?
A: CHCO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is CHCO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes CHCO Stock.
Q: Is City Holding Company Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for City Holding Company Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CHCO stock?
A: The consensus rating for CHCO is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for CHCO stock?
A: The prediction period for CHCO is (n+16 weeks)

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