Modelling A.I. in Economics

DCO Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock

Outlook: Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 21 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DCO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Is now good time to invest?
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

DCO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of DCO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DCO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DCO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DCO Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 21 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock

  1. Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  2. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.
  3. If, in applying paragraph 7.2.44, an entity reinstates a discontinued hedging relationship, the entity shall read references in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to the date the alternative benchmark rate is designated as a noncontractually specified risk component for the first time as referring to the date of initial application of these amendments (ie the 24-month period for that alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component begins from the date of initial application of these amendments).
  4. Compared to a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows, this business model will typically involve greater frequency and value of sales. This is because selling financial assets is integral to achieving the business model's objective instead of being only incidental to it. However, there is no threshold for the frequency or value of sales that must occur in this business model because both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets are integral to achieving its objective.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DCO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

DCO Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2B3
Leverage RatiosCCaa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 545 signals.

References

  1. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
  2. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
  3. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  4. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  5. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  6. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., What are buy sell or hold recommendations?(AIRC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DCO stock?
A: DCO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is DCO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold DCO Stock.
Q: Is Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ducommun Incorporated Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DCO stock?
A: The consensus rating for DCO is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for DCO stock?
A: The prediction period for DCO is (n+1 year)

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