Modelling A.I. in Economics

EDD Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 26 Mar 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EDD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

EDD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EDD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EDD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EDD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EDD Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 26 Mar 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock

  1. Conversely, if the critical terms of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are not closely aligned, there is an increased level of uncertainty about the extent of offset. Consequently, the hedge effectiveness during the term of the hedging relationship is more difficult to predict. In such a situation it might only be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a quantitative assessment that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6). In some situations a quantitative assessment might also be needed to assess whether the hedge ratio used for designating the hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements (see paragraphs B6.4.9–B6.4.11). An entity can use the same or different methods for those two different purposes.
  2. To make that determination, an entity must assess whether it expects that the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk will be offset in profit or loss by a change in the fair value of another financial instrument measured at fair value through profit or loss. Such an expectation must be based on an economic relationship between the characteristics of the liability and the characteristics of the other financial instrument.
  3. If changes are made in addition to those changes required by interest rate benchmark reform to the financial asset or financial liability designated in a hedging relationship (as described in paragraphs 5.4.6–5.4.8) or to the designation of the hedging relationship (as required by paragraph 6.9.1), an entity shall first apply the applicable requirements in this Standard to determine if those additional changes result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting. If the additional changes do not result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting, an entity shall amend the formal designation of the hedging relationship as specified in paragraph 6.9.1.
  4. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EDD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

EDD Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosBa3Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 567 signals.

References

  1. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  2. Blei DM, Lafferty JD. 2009. Topic models. In Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications, ed. A Srivastava, M Sahami, pp. 101–24. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  3. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  4. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  5. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  7. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EDD stock?
A: EDD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is EDD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes EDD Stock.
Q: Is Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EDD stock?
A: The consensus rating for EDD is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for EDD stock?
A: The prediction period for EDD is (n+4 weeks)

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