Modelling A.I. in Economics

EVK Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 26 Mar 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EVK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. Game Theory
  3. How do you pick a stock?

EVK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EVK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EVK stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EVK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EVK Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 26 Mar 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock

  1. If a variable-rate financial liability bears interest of (for example) three-month LIBOR minus 20 basis points (with a floor at zero basis points), an entity can designate as the hedged item the change in the cash flows of that entire liability (ie three-month LIBOR minus 20 basis points—including the floor) that is attributable to changes in LIBOR. Hence, as long as the three-month LIBOR forward curve for the remaining life of that liability does not fall below 20 basis points, the hedged item has the same cash flow variability as a liability that bears interest at three-month LIBOR with a zero or positive spread. However, if the three-month LIBOR forward curve for the remaining life of that liability (or a part of it) falls below 20 basis points, the hedged item has a lower cash flow variability than a liability that bears interest at threemonth LIBOR with a zero or positive spread.
  2. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).
  3. An entity's risk management is the main source of information to perform the assessment of whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. This means that the management information (or analysis) used for decision-making purposes can be used as a basis for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
  4. Financial assets that are held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets in order to collect contractual cash flows are managed to realise cash flows by collecting contractual payments over the life of the instrument. That is, the entity manages the assets held within the portfolio to collect those particular contractual cash flows (instead of managing the overall return on the portfolio by both holding and selling assets). In determining whether cash flows are going to be realised by collecting the financial assets' contractual cash flows, it is necessary to consider the frequency, value and timing of sales in prior periods, the reasons for those sales and expectations about future sales activity. However sales in themselves do not determine the business model and therefore cannot be considered in isolation. Instead, information about past sales and expectations about future sales provide evidence related to how the entity's stated objective for managing the financial assets is achieved and, specifically, how cash flows are realised. An entity must consider information about past sales within the context of the reasons for those sales and the conditions that existed at that time as compared to current conditions.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EVK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

EVK Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Baa2
Balance SheetB2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowB1C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 771 signals.

References

  1. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  2. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  3. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  4. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  5. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
  6. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you decide buy or sell a stock?(SAIC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EVK stock?
A: EVK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is EVK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EVK Stock.
Q: Is Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ever-Glory International Group Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EVK stock?
A: The consensus rating for EVK is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for EVK stock?
A: The prediction period for EVK is (n+4 weeks)

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