Modelling A.I. in Economics

FHI Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 17 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FHI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Operational Risk
  2. Can stock prices be predicted?
  3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

FHI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of FHI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FHI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FHI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FHI Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 17 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock

  1. For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.
  2. If a put option obligation written by an entity or call option right held by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at amortised cost, the associated liability is measured at its cost (ie the consideration received) adjusted for the amortisation of any difference between that cost and the gross carrying amount of the transferred asset at the expiration date of the option. For example, assume that the gross carrying amount of the asset on the date of the transfer is CU98 and that the consideration received is CU95. The gross carrying amount of the asset on the option exercise date will be CU100. The initial carrying amount of the associated liability is CU95 and the difference between CU95 and CU100 is recognised in profit or loss using the effective interest method. If the option is exercised, any difference between the carrying amount of the associated liability and the exercise price is recognised in profit or loss.
  3. For the purpose of this Standard, reasonable and supportable information is that which is reasonably available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort, including information about past events, current conditions and forecasts of future economic conditions. Information that is available for financial reporting purposes is considered to be available without undue cost or effort.
  4. An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FHI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

FHI Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetB3Ba3
Leverage RatiosB2Ba2
Cash FlowBa1C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 670 signals.

References

  1. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  2. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  3. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
  4. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  5. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
  6. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FHI stock?
A: FHI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is FHI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FHI Stock.
Q: Is Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Federated Hermes Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FHI stock?
A: The consensus rating for FHI is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for FHI stock?
A: The prediction period for FHI is (n+1 year)



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