HCF H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED (Forecast)

Outlook: H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 31 Mar 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HCF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Trading Interaction
2. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
3. What is prediction in deep learning?

HCF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of HCF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HCF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HCF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HCF H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 31 Mar 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED

1. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.
2. The fact that a derivative is in or out of the money when it is designated as a hedging instrument does not in itself mean that a qualitative assessment is inappropriate. It depends on the circumstances whether hedge ineffectiveness arising from that fact could have a magnitude that a qualitative assessment would not adequately capture.
3. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
4. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HCF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

HCF H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Caa2	C
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Ba3
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Caa2
Cash Flow	C	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	Caa2	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 505 signals.

References

1. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
2. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
3. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
4. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
5. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
7. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for HCF stock?
A: HCF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is HCF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HCF Stock.
Q: Is H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for H&G HIGH CONVICTION LIMITED is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HCF stock?
A: The consensus rating for HCF is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for HCF stock?
A: The prediction period for HCF is (n+6 month)

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