Modelling A.I. in Economics

HRE HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Outlook: HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 29 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HRE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. Market Signals
  3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

HRE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of HRE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HRE stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HRE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HRE HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 29 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED

  1. The credit risk on a financial instrument is considered low for the purposes of paragraph 5.5.10, if the financial instrument has a low risk of default, the borrower has a strong capacity to meet its contractual cash flow obligations in the near term and adverse changes in economic and business conditions in the longer term may, but will not necessarily, reduce the ability of the borrower to fulfil its contractual cash flow obligations. Financial instruments are not considered to have low credit risk when they are regarded as having a low risk of loss simply because of the value of collateral and the financial instrument without that collateral would not be considered low credit risk. Financial instruments are also not considered to have low credit risk simply because they have a lower risk of default than the entity's other financial instruments or relative to the credit risk of the jurisdiction within which an entity operates.
  2. In accordance with the hedge effectiveness requirements, the hedge ratio of the hedging relationship must be the same as that resulting from the quantity of the hedged item that the entity actually hedges and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge that quantity of hedged item. Hence, if an entity hedges less than 100 per cent of the exposure on an item, such as 85 per cent, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from 85 per cent of the exposure and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge those 85 per cent. Similarly, if, for example, an entity hedges an exposure using a nominal amount of 40 units of a financial instrument, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from that quantity of 40 units (ie the entity must not use a hedge ratio based on a higher quantity of units that it might hold in total or a lower quantity of units) and the quantity of the hedged item that it actually hedges with those 40 units.
  3. If a put option obligation written by an entity or call option right held by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at amortised cost, the associated liability is measured at its cost (ie the consideration received) adjusted for the amortisation of any difference between that cost and the gross carrying amount of the transferred asset at the expiration date of the option. For example, assume that the gross carrying amount of the asset on the date of the transfer is CU98 and that the consideration received is CU95. The gross carrying amount of the asset on the option exercise date will be CU100. The initial carrying amount of the associated liability is CU95 and the difference between CU95 and CU100 is recognised in profit or loss using the effective interest method. If the option is exercised, any difference between the carrying amount of the associated liability and the exercise price is recognised in profit or loss.
  4. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HRE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

HRE HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetBa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowCaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 818 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  2. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
  3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  4. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  7. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for HRE stock?
A: HRE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is HRE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HRE Stock.
Q: Is HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HEAVY RARE EARTHS LIMITED is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HRE stock?
A: The consensus rating for HRE is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for HRE stock?
A: The prediction period for HRE is (n+8 weeks)



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