Modelling A.I. in Economics

IMV:TSX IMV Inc. (Forecast)

Outlook: IMV Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 25 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

IMV Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the IMV:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Market Signals
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

IMV:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider IMV Inc. Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of IMV:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IMV:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

IMV:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: IMV:TSX IMV Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 25 Mar 2023 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for IMV Inc.

  1. When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.
  2. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
  3. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.
  4. In some jurisdictions, the government or a regulatory authority sets interest rates. For example, such government regulation of interest rates may be part of a broad macroeconomic policy or it may be introduced to encourage entities to invest in a particular sector of the economy. In some of these cases, the objective of the time value of money element is not to provide consideration for only the passage of time. However, despite paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9D, a regulated interest rate shall be considered a proxy for the time value of money element for the purpose of applying the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) if that regulated interest rate provides consideration that is broadly consistent with the passage of time and does not provide exposure to risks or volatility in the contractual cash flows that are inconsistent with a basic lending arrangement.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

IMV Inc. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. IMV Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the IMV:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

IMV:TSX IMV Inc. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Ba2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosB1Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 584 signals.

References

  1. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  3. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  4. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
  6. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  7. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for IMV:TSX stock?
A: IMV:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Beta
Q: Is IMV:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes IMV:TSX Stock.
Q: Is IMV Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for IMV Inc. is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of IMV:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for IMV:TSX is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for IMV:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for IMV:TSX is (n+16 weeks)

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