Modelling A.I. in Economics

JPM^J J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG (Forecast)

Outlook: J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 25 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JPM^J stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  2. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

JPM^J Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of JPM^J stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JPM^J stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

JPM^J Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: JPM^J J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG
Time series to forecast n: 25 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG

  1. If an entity previously accounted at cost (in accordance with IAS 39), for an investment in an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) (or for a derivative asset that is linked to and must be settled by delivery of such an equity instrument) it shall measure that instrument at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  2. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
  3. An alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component that is not separately identifiable (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) at the date it is designated shall be deemed to have met that requirement at that date, if, and only if, the entity reasonably expects the alternative benchmark rate will be separately identifiable within 24 months. The 24-month period applies to each alternative benchmark rate separately and starts from the date the entity designates the alternative benchmark rate as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time (ie the 24- month period applies on a rate-by-rate basis).
  4. For the purpose of this Standard, reasonable and supportable information is that which is reasonably available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort, including information about past events, current conditions and forecasts of future economic conditions. Information that is available for financial reporting purposes is considered to be available without undue cost or effort.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JPM^J stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

JPM^J J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Ba3
Balance SheetB3C
Leverage RatiosCBa2
Cash FlowBa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 453 signals.

References

  1. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
  2. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
  3. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  4. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  5. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  6. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is DOW Stock Expected to Go Up?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  7. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for JPM^J stock?
A: JPM^J stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is JPM^J stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JPM^J Stock.
Q: Is J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for J P Morgan Chase & Co Depositary Shares each representing a 1/400th interest in a share of JPMorgan Chase & Co. 4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series GG is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of JPM^J stock?
A: The consensus rating for JPM^J is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for JPM^J stock?
A: The prediction period for JPM^J is (n+1 year)

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