Modelling A.I. in Economics

KMPR Kemper Corporation (Forecast)

Outlook: Kemper Corporation is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 15 Mar 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

Kemper Corporation prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the KMPR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Operational Risk
  2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  3. Prediction Modeling

KMPR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Kemper Corporation Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of KMPR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KMPR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

KMPR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: KMPR Kemper Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 15 Mar 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Kemper Corporation

  1. Lifetime expected credit losses are generally expected to be recognised before a financial instrument becomes past due. Typically, credit risk increases significantly before a financial instrument becomes past due or other lagging borrower-specific factors (for example, a modification or restructuring) are observed. Consequently when reasonable and supportable information that is more forward-looking than past due information is available without undue cost or effort, it must be used to assess changes in credit risk.
  2. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.38–7.2.42.
  3. Paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.13 provide exceptions to the requirements specified in those paragraphs only. An entity shall apply all other hedge accounting requirements in this Standard, including the qualifying criteria in paragraph 6.4.1, to hedging relationships that were directly affected by interest rate benchmark reform.
  4. In some circumstances, the renegotiation or modification of the contractual cash flows of a financial asset can lead to the derecognition of the existing financial asset in accordance with this Standard. When the modification of a financial asset results in the derecognition of the existing financial asset and the subsequent recognition of the modified financial asset, the modified asset is considered a 'new' financial asset for the purposes of this Standard.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Kemper Corporation is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Kemper Corporation prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the KMPR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

KMPR Kemper Corporation Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosCBa1
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 571 signals.

References

  1. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  2. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  3. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  4. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
  5. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
  6. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  7. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for KMPR stock?
A: KMPR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is KMPR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell KMPR Stock.
Q: Is Kemper Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Kemper Corporation is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of KMPR stock?
A: The consensus rating for KMPR is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for KMPR stock?
A: The prediction period for KMPR is (n+3 month)

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