Outlook: ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 18 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ARTL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
2. Can machine learning predict?
3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

## LON:ARTL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ARTL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ARTL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:ARTL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ARTL ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 18 Mar 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED

1. Annual Improvements to IFRSs 2010–2012 Cycle, issued in December 2013, amended paragraphs 4.2.1 and 5.7.5 as a consequential amendment derived from the amendment to IFRS 3. An entity shall apply that amendment prospectively to business combinations to which the amendment to IFRS 3 applies.
2. When measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity shall consider the time value of money. Consequently, the entity determines the value of the hedged item on a present value basis and therefore the change in the value of the hedged item also includes the effect of the time value of money.
3. The rebuttable presumption in paragraph 5.5.11 is not an absolute indicator that lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised, but is presumed to be the latest point at which lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised even when using forward-looking information (including macroeconomic factors on a portfolio level).
4. For loan commitments, an entity considers changes in the risk of a default occurring on the loan to which a loan commitment relates. For financial guarantee contracts, an entity considers the changes in the risk that the specified debtor will default on the contract.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ARTL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### LON:ARTL ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B2
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosCB1
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 516 signals.

## References

1. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
2. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
3. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
4. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
5. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
6. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
7. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ARTL stock?
A: LON:ARTL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is LON:ARTL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:ARTL Stock.
Q: Is ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ALPHA REAL TRUST LIMITED is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ARTL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ARTL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ARTL stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ARTL is (n+1 year)