Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:BOO BOOHOO GROUP PLC

Outlook: BOOHOO GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 23 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)

Abstract

BOOHOO GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:BOO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. Market Risk
  3. What is neural prediction?

LON:BOO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider BOOHOO GROUP PLC Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BOO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BOO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BOO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BOO BOOHOO GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 23 Mar 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for BOOHOO GROUP PLC

  1. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  2. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  3. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.
  4. Adjusting the hedge ratio allows an entity to respond to changes in the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item that arise from their underlyings or risk variables. For example, a hedging relationship in which the hedging instrument and the hedged item have different but related underlyings changes in response to a change in the relationship between those two underlyings (for example, different but related reference indices, rates or prices). Hence, rebalancing allows the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item chang

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

BOOHOO GROUP PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. BOOHOO GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:BOO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:BOO BOOHOO GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3Baa2
Balance SheetB3Baa2
Leverage RatiosCC
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 636 signals.

References

  1. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  2. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
  3. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  4. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
  5. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
  6. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  7. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BOO stock?
A: LON:BOO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is LON:BOO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:BOO Stock.
Q: Is BOOHOO GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BOOHOO GROUP PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BOO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BOO is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BOO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BOO is (n+8 weeks)

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