Outlook: ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 14 Mar 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

## Abstract

ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:DGN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. What is statistical models in machine learning?
2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
3. Is Target price a good indicator?

## LON:DGN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:DGN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:DGN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:DGN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:DGN ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 14 Mar 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC

1. If a financial asset contains a contractual term that could change the timing or amount of contractual cash flows (for example, if the asset can be prepaid before maturity or its term can be extended), the entity must determine whether the contractual cash flows that could arise over the life of the instrument due to that contractual term are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. To make this determination, the entity must assess the contractual cash flows that could arise both before, and after, the change in contractual cash flows. The entity may also need to assess the nature of any contingent event (ie the trigger) that would change the timing or amount of the contractual cash flows. While the nature of the contingent event in itself is not a determinative factor in assessing whether the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest, it may be an indicator. For example, compare a financial instrument with an interest rate that is reset to a higher rate if the debtor misses a particular number of payments to a financial instrument with an interest rate that is reset to a higher rate if a specified equity index reaches a particular level. It is more likely in the former case that the contractual cash flows over the life of the instrument will be solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding because of the relationship between missed payments and an increase in credit risk. (See also paragraph B4.1.18.)
2. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).
3. An entity is not required to incorporate forecasts of future conditions over the entire expected life of a financial instrument. The degree of judgement that is required to estimate expected credit losses depends on the availability of detailed information. As the forecast horizon increases, the availability of detailed information decreases and the degree of judgement required to estimate expected credit losses increases. The estimate of expected credit losses does not require a detailed estimate for periods that are far in the future—for such periods, an entity may extrapolate projections from available, detailed information.
4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39 and IFRS 7, issued in September 2019, added Section 6.8 and amended paragraph 7.2.26. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2020. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:DGN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### LON:DGN ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Baa2
Balance SheetB1Baa2
Leverage RatiosB1B3
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 635 signals.

## References

1. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
2. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
3. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
4. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
5. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
6. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
7. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:DGN stock?
A: LON:DGN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LON:DGN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DGN Stock.
Q: Is ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ASIA DRAGON TRUST PLC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:DGN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:DGN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:DGN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:DGN is (n+4 weeks)