LON:ELM ELEMENTIS PLC

Outlook: ELEMENTIS PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 15 Mar 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

ELEMENTIS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ELM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
3. Operational Risk

LON:ELM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ELEMENTIS PLC Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ELM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ELM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:ELM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ELM ELEMENTIS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 15 Mar 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ELEMENTIS PLC

1. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
2. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
3. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
4. An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information but shall consider all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant to the estimate of expected credit losses, including the effect of expected prepayments. The information used shall include factors that are specific to the borrower, general economic conditions and an assessment of both the current as well as the forecast direction of conditions at the reporting date. An entity may use various sources of data, that may be both internal (entity-specific) and external. Possible data sources include internal historical credit loss experience, internal ratings, credit loss experience of other entities and external ratings, reports and statistics. Entities that have no, or insufficient, sources of entityspecific data may use peer group experience for the comparable financial instrument (or groups of financial instruments).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ELEMENTIS PLC is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. ELEMENTIS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:ELM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:ELM ELEMENTIS PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Ba2	Caa2
Balance Sheet	B3	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	B3
Cash Flow	Baa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 600 signals.

References

1. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
2. Abadie A, Imbens GW. 2011. Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 29:1–11
3. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
4. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
5. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
6. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
7. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ELM stock?
A: LON:ELM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:ELM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:ELM Stock.
Q: Is ELEMENTIS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ELEMENTIS PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ELM stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ELM is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ELM stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ELM is (n+6 month)

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